Kenyan households are expected to continue digging deeper into their pockets to purchase key food items in the month of April 2025, the most affected being maize, beans, wheat, some rice varieties and other cereals as well as select vegetables. According to the Agriculture Sector Survey published by the Central Bank of Kenya(CBK), March 2025, this is happening as the March-May long rainy season continues.
The Survey also shows that those interviewed expect the prices of sugar, cooking fat and cooking oil (salad) to also pick up, reflecting developments in the global market where prices of these items have been rising in the recent past.
In line with the expected long rain season, prices of fast-growing vegetable items, particularly kales, traditional vegetables, cabbages and spinach are, however, expected to decline in April 2025.
But this downward price trend does not include tomato prices which are expected to increase mainly reflecting expected decline in supply as a result of the long rains.
Most of those interviewed expect prices of key food items, particularly cereals and related products, to increase in April 2025. This largely reflects seasonality as April is usually a non-harvest month for most cereals. However, respondents expect prices of fast growing vegetable items to decline given the March-May rain season.
But there are also expectations that prices of these food items will ease both in one month and three months’ horizon in line with the favourable weather outlook.
Data from the Survey shows mixed price performance across the commodities in March compared to February 2025.
For instance, the survey noted a general price increase in maize and maize products, some rice varieties and select vegetable items. However, price declines were noted particularly on unpeeled garden peas, green grams, cabbages, tomatoes, milk and wheat flour.
The survey showed that the proportion of respondents expect overall inflation to increase in the next month before declining. This is in line with the expectations of adequate food supplies following the onset of the long rainy season.
The March 2025 Agriculture survey, like previous ones, gathered information on wholesale and retail prices of select food items, expectations regarding changes in prices and output, and factors that affect agricultural production.
The survey drew respondents from select wholesale and retail markets and select farms in key food basket regions. These included the Nairobi Metropolitan area, and neighbouring counties such as Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos.
Other areas covered included Naivasha, Gilgil, Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho Kisumu, Mombasa, Kisii, Eldoret, Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Isebania, Meru, Nyeri, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, Makueni and Molo and some parts of Western Kenya.
Most sampled farmers in the March 2025 survey were optimistic that output of most food crops was generally expected to increase, largely driven by the expectation of favourable rainfall outcome for the March-May 2025 long rains season and expected continuation of government measures, particularly the subsidised fertiliser programme. Some farmers underscored the adoption of smart agriculture farming methods, which despite being limited in scope, were gaining traction as a potential source of farm income.
