Prices of key food items are expected to decline or remain unchanged in December, an Agricultural sector survey 2022 by the Central Bank of Kenya(CBK) shows. According to this survey, transport costs, input prices and weather conditions continue to impact retail prices while supply chain disruptions also have a big impact on farming.
The survey found that over 81 percent of farmers expect the output of key food items to increase or remain the same in the next harvest up from 60 and 78 percent in July and September respectively.
Most farmers employ a combination of inputs for farming with the use of inorganic fertilizer and manure ranking the highest.
Only 20 percent of sampled farms reported having accessed the subsidized fertilizer, and nearly all farmers practice rain-fed agriculture reflecting their vulnerability to harsh climatic conditions.
The survey looked at the changes in prices in both wholesale and retail markets, expectations about changes in the prices and factors that affect the traders.
The Survey sought to determine changes in the prices of key agricultural commodities between September and November 2022.
The analysis of retail prices between September and November 2022 revealed a moderation in prices of key agricultural commodities, notably maize and edible oils. This was on account of improved weather conditions that supported the vegetable season and the increased supply of maize and wheat during the ongoing harvest season.
The price of wheat moderated in line with declining international wheat prices. However, the prices of spinach, potatoes, green maize, beans, sugar, peas, rice, cabbages, and milk remained elevated due to low production
The selected items are being tracked from September 2022 to inform the direction and magnitude of price movements.
Grain and flour prices are expected to remain the same or decline in December 2022. A majority of respondents (69 percent) expect retail prices of the identified agricultural commodities to either decline or remain unchanged up from 62 percent in September the respondents indicated that the continued maize and wheat harvest in Kenya and Tanzania has helped to moderate prices of maize grain, wheat, and their finished products such as flour and bread. However, the price of green maize was expected to rise due to limited supply in December as the maize harvest season comes to an end. The price of rice is also expected to rise due to low production occasioned by limited rainfall and the looming demand from the festive season.
Vegetable prices are expected to remain the same or decline in December 2022 except for tomatoes and potatoes as the short rains continue across the country. The price of animal products is also expected to decline or remain unchanged as more pasture for the livestock becomes available with the rains. The price of cooking oil is also expected to decline further or remain the same in line with international trends.
 The impact of COVID-19 is ranked low and is no longer an issue as the economy is now fully open and there are no further restrictions to movement following the full reopening of the economy and lifting of travel restrictions.
The ongoing war in Ukraine however perceived to continue impacting retail and wholesale markets. Over 81 percent of farmers expect the output of key food items to increase or remain the same in the next harvest up from 60 and 78 percent in July and September, respectively, on account of improved weather conditions and increased acreage per food crop. Supply of maize products is expected to improve with the harvest season in source regions such as Kitale, Narok and Uasin Gishu.Â
